I received the following email today from someone who needs to remain anonymous. However, I trust them and their opinion and wanted to share their thoughts with you here as a way to continue our discussion.
While I don’t agree with all of this, it does spark an interesting chain of thought.
Larry
P.S. I did not write this, nor did I ask it to be written. I have obtained permission to share it with you.
– – –
Apple says that FCP X is about the future of NLE. After thinking about it, I think they are right.
It’s not just about the GUI or features per se… but the fact that our culture is going mobile and our work along with it. A new generation is growing up and moving them from iMovie to FCPX will be easy. Also the new generation will invent their own workflows and their own content and their own way of doing things. Apple may have jumped the gun in a way that made it impossible for a percentage of the current editing community to go along, but those folks are not the future. Not in the same way a 16-year-old iMovie whiz is.
Look at the big picture. Sales of standard PCs have fallen while portable products have been flying off the shelves. This is no fad, it’s the future.
Watch as the system requirements for NLE on the Apple side look more and more lean. Apple owns both hardware and OS, my bet is that they will leverage that to guarantee they are ahead of the curve in performance requiring smaller and smaller hardware overhead. It’s in this way, as the new generation of editors comes up, FCP will take back it’s place as the de facto platform for any level of project. I’m absolutely convinced (as is Apple) that sooner than you think, a teenager today will be working on an episode of “Extreme _____ Makeover” using an iPad__ with lots of storage on board. I already saw someone using an iPad as a 2nd display for FCP X and how some functions were already touch screen enabled. Those pissed off edit suite owners may be pissed off at what Apple has done, but just wait till all those up-and-coming digital kids start to see those very expensive edit suites as dinosaur grave yards.
That’s where Apple is headed and a powerful, sleek FCP that uses iCloud technology along with all the other new technologies is where the future really is. Does anyone remember those $250,000 edit suites that got replaced by a $1,300.00 Final Cut Studio, back in the day? Well, Apple is doing it again with one major change, this time they are obsoleting themselves before someone else does.
It really is the future, or at least it’s headed in that direction.
109 Responses to The Future of Non-Linear Editing?
← Older Comments Newer Comments →-
Allynn says:
July 27, 2011 at 10:05 am
-
Ivan says:
July 27, 2011 at 10:38 am
-
Nivardo Cavalcante says:
July 27, 2011 at 11:11 am
-
russtafa says:
July 27, 2011 at 11:23 am
-
Pat (VET) says:
July 27, 2011 at 11:44 am
-
John Denato says:
July 27, 2011 at 11:55 am
-
Leo Hans says:
July 27, 2011 at 12:11 pm
-
swebb says:
July 27, 2011 at 2:36 pm
-
russtafa says:
July 27, 2011 at 4:34 pm
-
Dan Rochlis says:
July 27, 2011 at 6:20 pm
← Older Comments Newer Comments →They shouldn’t have called it Final Cut and they shouldn’t have made it look like iMovie. It’s neither. It should have it’s own name and it’s own look because, clearly, a lot of Final Cut users won’t give it a chance and a lot of iMovie users won’t understand what it can really do.
The database underpinnings and metadata are where the real revolution is, not the fluffy cloud lower thirds and thought balloons.
I can see database automated rough cuts practically making themselves. I can see component video pieces that can be changed and refreshed on the fly. Imagine a campus tour that can updated seamlessly every semester.
But – and this is the part I think is the sticking point – “X” will only work to its full potential if people accurately log and sub-clip their footage. And that job isn’t fun or sexy. The automatic metadata that Apple can already implement (face and scene detection) is a start but it will never replace human tagging. This is where I feel “X” will fail and simply fall back to the shiny new toy software it seems to be on the surface.
I think that too many people have completely wrong perspective about “staying” and “switching”.
FCP editors, nobody is staying, you are all SWITCHING… switching to FCP X, PP, MC, what ever.
You can not stay on product that is EOL’d
Going to FCP X is not “staying”.
You can switch now, or in 3 years, or when your hardware is obsolete, or when you want to add more seats.
You will have to switch and learn new application anyway.
The only question is where to go and is it clever to stay on EOL’d NLE for longer period, and have even more projects that you won’t be able to translate 100% accurately to your new NLE.
Larry let me post this link.
With so many discussions on FCP X, this might be a fun way to understand what is happening.
Hilarious….
http://provideocoalition.com/index.php/shullfish/story/fcp_x_mission_control_parody/
Guys,
This is getting quite boring.
Final Cut Pro 7 STILL WORKS!!!
Final Cut 10 will be perfectly suitable for a lot of young up and coming editors, and existing ones as well, who need to do certain tasks and deliver to specific markets.
Adobe and AVID will be very keen to take your money I am sure!!
Best thing..March on to pastures new with the “power of your wallets” if it really annoys you that much.
Otherwise, stay calm, wait awhile there is no “magic software bullet” which will suddenly extinguish your working copies of FCP 5, 6 or 7.
So what is the problem??
Well Larry what a storm you’ve created 🙂
As others have said FCP Legacy has a limited life. A year many be more for a few die hards. So people will switch.
Some will switch soon and some will even go with FCPX. Why not it’s cheap and once they have it they will find uses for it. And those uses will incorporate more and more work that traditionally came to the more traditional and expensive facilities.
So in some ways I agree. Think traditional post is contracting (and has been for years) and that contraction will accelerate. Post houses will fold editors will retire or find another outlet for their skills.
There will be work for solving problems and finding solutions and pushing the boundaries but the monies won’t be what they were before.
Much like the music industry the changes in technology and the expectations and depth of pockets of the end users is changing.
We have FCPX and plan to run some initial training soon but I expect the cost of the software will ensure it’s almost impossible to turn a profit on training in the traditional way (instructor led hands on)
Luckily we have a reputation in the high end professional training field and that’s even busier currently. But I can’t see this business being anything like it is now in 3 years time.
@ Leo Hans…”Why are you still around FCPX forums if you are so sure to jump into another NLE and you are so confident with your decision.”
I actually used to come by Larry’s page quite a lot before to pick up some editing tips. It’s also a great site to keep an eye on the industry. The other reason i’m posting is to try help others who were like me lose their blind devotion to Apple. If you were on a boat filled with life jackets as the Titanic sank, wouldn’t you try to throw out as many life jackets to try and save as many people as possible.
@Leo & Floris “FCPX is blazing fast even more so that PPRO CS5.5.” Like many other I had FCPX for a few days and asked for a refund. I must of gotten a really different version from what you guys got. FCPX is fast with a few clips in the timeline but that’s where it ends. Once you’re timeline goes into the 30 min to 1 hour mark FCXP slows down like a turtle stuck in soft mud. The constant crashing (every 15-20 min also made my experience with it very frustrating. I’ve been using Premiere pro for a good 2 weeks now and I have yet to experience a speed bump or a crash. I’d also like to stress the fact that most people didn’t jump over to CS5 or CS 5.5 from FCP7 because we were all waiting for Apple to release a new stellar version of FCP. We had all our gear and plugins setup for FCP7 so there was no need to switch over. As for your why did everyone say it was Jaw Dropping at nab comment? AHHH the wonders of great marketing…what Apple does best. First off that was Larry Jordan that made that comment in his blog and then it caught on in other blogs and yes eventually Apple even used it to market FCPX. Keep in mind most editors that night just saw the flashy stuff, they had no clue of what was killed off and left out.
Apple are the masters of deception….Like the other post from Cris above mentioned with the iphone 4, even when a product from Apple is proven to be defective Apple some how manages to turn the blame around on the user. You’re the problem 😉
Anyways don’t say I didn’t try to warn you guys. Let me know how it is at the bottom of the sea.
@Cris Daniels
You assume that everyone not jumping off FCP/FCPX platform is a teenager.
You are wrong, my hair is slowly turning white, I am not a teenager and I am a pro editor too (as are a lot of people you are calling stupid).
Why do you want to change the way you do your work? Why don’t? Why you don’t want to evolve? Do you really edit exactly the same way as 15 years ago? I do not. I use different tools and I see some things different to my younger me. Everybody should be open to new things. And that doesn’t mean you must go to FCPX.
Most of your statements are angry driven and other are just speculations.
As a freelancer working with different directors I learned that not all of them asks for the same thing from an editor. Some guys asks for speed, some doesn’t care of speed. Some directors like editors to push buttons, some wants just creative feedback and so on. I work with FCP7 and with Media Composer and when deadlines are approaching, both suffers from the same limitations, limitations FCPX not removed, but almost.
What roadmaps gives Avid to you? They took five years (or even more) to add their not–so–smart Tools, and their AMA. It still stops playing if you sneeze.
Stay calm, nothing so terrible happened.
Larry, I’m writing on behalf of my 14-year-old son, who’s won a number of awards already for movies he’s made with FCP7. A budding filmmaker (or perhaps a professional editor), he now wants to learn Avid, as it appears that Apple is leaving FCP7 behind. Perhaps Adobe CS5.5 too. He has no interest in FCPX for his own work. So Apple isn’t winning over all of the teenagers out there. There are some who want professional level tools for their futures.
As I saw “music industry” in a post above thought I would elaborate.
15 years ago you might have an… SSL or Neve Mixing Console (Expensive!!)
Maybe Sony 3348 or Mitsubishi X880 digital multitrack (maybe a Studer Analogue Multitrack) Maybe looking at a total investment well over a million pounds Sterling £1000000 + for a recording studio. Most long dead and gone now.
If you get a Mac Pro/Protools 9 some HD192s maybe a Sync IO you can of course build a really decent recording rig for about £10 grand (£10000) and get much more efficient results. (oops sorry forgot to add in the mics. but those are a lot cheaper these days as well).
What I am detecting and “smell” here is real fear and that is not surprising.
So for another comment from swebb above my daughter who is at Uni can create a 3D job then I can (if it is good enough and worth it) send it out to somewhere like http://www.rebusfarm.com/ to have it rendered, merely as an example of what you can do these days.
How much would that have cost 10+ years ago?? Custom software/Custom hardware and the cost/time/effort!
Change for “change’s sake” is not necessarily good BUT it IS going to happen!! So you can have your CS5.5s and MCs etc etc but that is not necessarily going to be your salvation. I am a technical Engineer and have seen many many changes throughout my career and embraced them. I do not know what to suggest as I have seen old school editors splicing sprocketed film and they are long “dead and gone” that has happened during my working lifetime.
One thing I would bet on though, Final Cut 10 being one of the major harbingers of change for the next decade with the underlying technology and “game plan” that goes with it, so ignore it at your peril!!
Wow what a challenge to stay on top of things .
Seems that there are issues involving work ethics and respect for complicated systems that are way too fragile to handle changing paradigms. Still these companies are looking to keep an edge improving workflows which is part of the new FCPX.
While is it is important to give a space for youth there are other reasons to appreciate Apple. Ugly as is sounds here of all places(forgive me if I am if it seem insensitive ) Apples strength may be that they don’t need the professionals to pay there bills so they can risk something like this to make real improvements.
Chris Kenny sums it up well here
http://blog.nicedissolve.com/2011/07/why-apple-is-worth-defending/
You may want to this if you’re considering avid.
-Dan